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WildfireGenome: Interpretable Machine Learning Reveals Local Drivers of Wildfire Risk and Their Cross-County Variation

Liu, Chenyue, Mostafavi, Ali

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current wildfire risk assessments rely on coarse hazard maps and opaque machine learning models that optimize regional accuracy while sacrificing interpretability at the decision scale. WildfireGenome addresses these gaps through three components: (1) fusion of seven federal wildfire indicators into a sign-aligned, PCA-based composite risk label at H3 Level-8 resolution; (2) Random Forest classification of local wildfire risk; and (3) SHAP and ICE/PDP analyses to expose county-specific nonlinear driver relationships. Across seven ecologically diverse U.S. counties, models achieve accuracies of 0.755-0.878 and Quadratic Weighted Kappa up to 0.951, with principal components explaining 87-94% of indicator variance. Transfer tests show reliable performance between ecologically similar regions but collapse across dissimilar contexts. Explanations consistently highlight needleleaf forest cover and elevation as dominant drivers, with risk rising sharply at 30-40% needleleaf coverage. WildfireGenome advances wildfire risk assessment from regional prediction to interpretable, decision-scale analytics that guide vegetation management, zoning, and infrastructure planning.


From Hubs to Deserts: Urban Cultural Accessibility Patterns with Explainable AI

Pranto, Protik Bose, Islam, Minhazul, Saha, Ripon Kumar, Rivera, Abimelec Mercado, Abbasov, Namig

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cultural infrastructures, such as libraries, museums, theaters, and galleries, support learning, civic life, health, and local economies, yet access is uneven across cities. We present a novel, scalable, and open-data framework to measure spatial equity in cultural access. We map cultural infrastructures and compute a metric called Cultural Infrastructure Accessibility Score (CIAS) using exponential distance decay at fine spatial resolution, then aggregate the score per capita and integrate socio-demographic indicators. Interpretable tree-ensemble models with SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) are used to explain associations between accessibility, income, density, and tract-level racial/ethnic composition. Results show a pronounced core-periphery gradient, where non-library cultural infrastructures cluster near urban cores, while libraries track density and provide broader coverage. Non-library accessibility is modestly higher in higher-income tracts, and library accessibility is slightly higher in denser, lower-income areas.


From Binary to Bilingual: How the National Weather Service is Using Artificial Intelligence to Develop a Comprehensive Translation Program

Trujillo-Falcon, Joseph E., Bozeman, Monica L., Llewellyn, Liam E., Halvorson, Samuel T., Mizell, Meryl, Deshpande, Stuti, Manning, Bob, Fagin, Todd

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To advance a Weather-Ready Nation, the National Weather Service (NWS) is developing a systematic translation program to better serve the 68.8 million people in the U.S. who do not speak English at home. This article outlines the foundation of an automated translation tool for NWS products, powered by artificial intelligence. The NWS has partnered with LILT, whose patented training process enables large language models (LLMs) to adapt neural machine translation (NMT) tools for weather terminology and messaging. Designed for scalability across Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and National Centers, the system is currently being developed in Spanish, Simplified Chinese, Vietnamese, and other widely spoken non-English languages. Rooted in best practices for multilingual risk communication, the system provides accurate, timely, and culturally relevant translations, significantly reducing manual translation time and easing operational workloads across the NWS. To guide the distribution of these products, GIS mapping was used to identify language needs across different NWS regions, helping prioritize resources for the communities that need them most. We also integrated ethical AI practices throughout the program's design, ensuring that transparency, fairness, and human oversight guide how automated translations are created, evaluated, and shared with the public. This work has culminated into a website featuring experimental multilingual NWS products, including translated warnings, 7-day forecasts, and educational campaigns, bringing the country one step closer to a national warning system that reaches all Americans.


Empowering LLM Agents with Geospatial Awareness: Toward Grounded Reasoning for Wildfire Response

Chen, Yiheng, Li, Lingyao, Ma, Zihui, Hu, Qikai, Zhu, Yilun, Deng, Min, Yu, Runlong

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Effective disaster response is essential for safeguarding lives and property. Existing statistical approaches often lack semantic context, generalize poorly across events, and offer limited interpretability. While Large language models (LLMs) provide few-shot generalization, they remain text-bound and blind to geography. To bridge this gap, we introduce a Geospatial Awareness Layer (GAL) that grounds LLM agents in structured earth data. Starting from raw wildfire detections, GAL automatically retrieves and integrates infrastructure, demographic, terrain, and weather information from external geodatabases, assembling them into a concise, unit-annotated perception script. This enriched context enables agents to produce evidence-based resource-allocation recommendations (e.g., personnel assignments, budget allocations), further reinforced by historical analogs and daily change signals for incremental updates. We evaluate the framework in real wildfire scenarios across multiple LLM models, showing that geospatially grounded agents can outperform baselines. The proposed framework can generalize to other hazards such as floods and hurricanes.


Benchmarking Large Language Models for Geolocating Colonial Virginia Land Grants

Mioduski, Ryan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Virginia's seventeenth- and eighteenth-century land patents survive primarily as narrative metes-and-bounds descriptions, limiting spatial analysis. This study systematically evaluates current-generation large language models (LLMs) in converting these prose abstracts into geographically accurate latitude/longitude coordinates within a focused evaluation context. A digitized corpus of 5,471 Virginia patent abstracts (1695-1732) is released, with 43 rigorously verified test cases serving as an initial, geographically focused benchmark. Six OpenAI models across three architectures (o-series, GPT-4-class, and GPT-3.5) were tested under two paradigms: direct-to-coordinate and tool-augmented chain-of-thought invoking external geocoding APIs. Results were compared with a GIS-analyst baseline, the Stanford NER geoparser, Mordecai-3, and a county-centroid heuristic. The top single-call model, o3-2025-04-16, achieved a mean error of 23 km (median 14 km), outperforming the median LLM (37.4 km) by 37.5%, the weakest LLM (50.3 km) by 53.5%, and external baselines by 67% (GIS analyst) and 70% (Stanford NER). A five-call ensemble further reduced errors to 19 km (median 12 km) at minimal additional cost (approx. USD 0.20 per grant), outperforming the median LLM by 48.6%. A patentee-name-redaction ablation increased error by about 9%, indicating reliance on textual landmark and adjacency descriptions rather than memorization. The cost-efficient gpt-4o-2024-08-06 model maintained a 28 km mean error at USD 1.09 per 1,000 grants, establishing a strong cost-accuracy benchmark; external geocoding tools offered no measurable benefit in this evaluation. These findings demonstrate the potential of LLMs for scalable, accurate, and cost-effective historical georeferencing.


ClimateSOM: A Visual Analysis Workflow for Climate Ensemble Datasets

Kawakami, Yuya, Cayan, Daniel, Liu, Dongyu, Ma, Kwan-Liu

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ensemble datasets are ever more prevalent in various scientific domains. In climate science, ensemble datasets are used to capture variability in projections under plausible future conditions including greenhouse and aerosol emissions. Each ensemble model run produces projections that are fundamentally similar yet meaningfully distinct. Understanding this variability among ensemble model runs and analyzing its magnitude and patterns is a vital task for climate scientists. In this paper, we present ClimateSOM, a visual analysis workflow that leverages a self-organizing map (SOM) and Large Language Models (LLMs) to support interactive exploration and interpretation of climate ensemble datasets. The workflow abstracts climate ensemble model runs - spatiotemporal time series - into a distribution over a 2D space that captures the variability among the ensemble model runs using a SOM. LLMs are integrated to assist in sensemaking of this SOM-defined 2D space, the basis for the visual analysis tasks. In all, ClimateSOM enables users to explore the variability among ensemble model runs, identify patterns, compare and cluster the ensemble model runs. To demonstrate the utility of ClimateSOM, we apply the workflow to an ensemble dataset of precipitation projections over California and the Northwestern United States. Furthermore, we conduct a short evaluation of our LLM integration, and conduct an expert review of the visual workflow and the insights from the case studies with six domain experts to evaluate our approach and its utility.


STEVE HILTON: Why I'm launching a legal war against California Democrats' unconstitutional power grab

FOX News

California gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton on former Vice President Kamala Harris declining to run for the California governorship and Gov. Gavin Newsom's idea to redraw California's map if Texas redistricts. California Democrats are once again trying to rig the system, overturn elections and steal congressional seats from Republicans. Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta are planning to redraw California's congressional maps in 2025 or 2026, halfway through the decade and years before the next census. It's a blatant, unconstitutional power grab designed to silence millions of voters and cement one-party rule in California. Democrats are already trying to rewrite the history of this redistricting fight, claiming it's just retaliation for Republican maps in Texas.


Validating remotely sensed biomass estimates with forest inventory data in the western US

Cao, Xiuyu, Sexton, Joseph O., Wang, Panshi, Gounaridis, Dimitrios, Carter, Neil H., Zhu, Kai

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Monitoring aboveground biomass (AGB) and its density (AGBD) at high resolution is essential for carbon accounting and ecosystem management. While NASA's spaceborne Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) LiDAR mission provides globally distributed reference measurements for AGBD estimation, the majority of commercial remote sensing products based on GEDI remain without rigorous or independent validation. Here, we present an independent regional validation of an AGBD dataset offered by terraPulse, Inc., based on independent reference data from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. Aggregated to 64,000-hectare hexagons and US counties across the US states of Utah, Nevada, and Washington, we found very strong agreement between terraPulse and FIA estimates. At the hexagon scale, we report R2 = 0.88, RMSE = 26.68 Mg/ha, and a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.94. At the county scale, agreement improves to R2 = 0.90, RMSE =32.62 Mg/ha, slope = 1.07, and r = 0.95. Spatial and statistical analyses indicated that terraPulse AGBD values tended to exceed FIA estimates in non-forest areas, likely due to FIA's limited sampling of non-forest vegetation. The terraPulse AGBD estimates also exhibited lower values in high-biomass forests, likely due to saturation effects in its optical remote-sensing covariates. This study advances operational carbon monitoring by delivering a scalable framework for comprehensive AGBD validation using independent FIA data, as well as a benchmark validation of a new commercial dataset for global biomass monitoring.


GIScience in the Era of Artificial Intelligence: A Research Agenda Towards Autonomous GIS

Li, Zhenlong, Ning, Huan, Gao, Song, Janowicz, Krzysztof, Li, Wenwen, Arundel, Samantha T., Yang, Chaowei, Bhaduri, Budhendra, Wang, Shaowen, Zhu, A-Xing, Gahegan, Mark, Shekhar, Shashi, Ye, Xinyue, McKenzie, Grant, Cervone, Guido, Hodgson, Michael E.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The advent of generative AI exemplified by large language models (LLMs) opens new ways to represent and compute geographic information and transcends the process of geographic knowledge production, driving geographic information systems (GIS) towards autonomous GIS. Leveraging LLMs as the decision core, autonomous GIS can independently generate and execute geoprocessing workflows to perform spatial analysis. In this vision paper, we further elaborate on the concept of autonomous GIS and present a conceptual framework that defines its five autonomous goals, five autonomous levels, five core functions, and three operational scales. We demonstrate how autonomous GIS could perform geospatial data retrieval, spatial analysis, and map making with four proof-of-concept GIS agents. We conclude by identifying critical challenges and future research directions, including fine-tuning and self-growing decision-cores, autonomous modeling, and examining the societal and practical implications of autonomous GIS. By establishing the groundwork for a paradigm shift in GIScience, this paper envisions a future where GIS moves beyond traditional workflows to autonomously reason, derive, innovate, and advance geospatial solutions to pressing global challenges. Meanwhile, as we design and deploy increasingly intelligent geospatial systems, we carry a responsibility to ensure they are developed in socially responsible ways, serve the public good, and support the continued value of human geographic insight in an AI-augmented future.


RegionGCN: Spatial-Heterogeneity-Aware Graph Convolutional Networks

Guo, Hao, Wang, Han, Zhu, Di, Wu, Lun, Fotheringham, A. Stewart, Liu, Yu

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modeling spatial heterogeneity in the data generation process is essential for understanding and predicting geographical phenomena. Despite their prevalence in geospatial tasks, neural network models usually assume spatial stationarity, which could limit their performance in the presence of spatial process heterogeneity. By allowing model parameters to vary over space, several approaches have been proposed to incorporate spatial heterogeneity into neural networks. However, current geographically weighting approaches are ineffective on graph neural networks, yielding no significant improvement in prediction accuracy. We assume the crux lies in the over-fitting risk brought by a large number of local parameters. Accordingly, we propose to model spatial process heterogeneity at the regional level rather than at the individual level, which largely reduces the number of spatially varying parameters. We further develop a heuristic optimization procedure to learn the region partition adaptively in the process of model training. Our proposed spatial-heterogeneity-aware graph convolutional network, named RegionGCN, is applied to the spatial prediction of county-level vote share in the 2016 US presidential election based on socioeconomic attributes. Results show that RegionGCN achieves significant improvement over the basic and geographically weighted GCNs. We also offer an exploratory analysis tool for the spatial variation of non-linear relationships through ensemble learning of regional partitions from RegionGCN. Our work contributes to the practice of Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) in tackling spatial heterogeneity.